A self-professed “Hottest 100 enthusiast” is “very confident” that he has predicted the top 10 songs of this year’s triple j Hottest 100, which is to be released into the wild on Australia Day.
Sydney journalist and statistics fanatic Patrick Avenell believes his latest Hottest 100 predictions are on the money, and has shared a lengthy (we’re talking over 3000 words) blog post “in which a Hottest 100 enthusiast dissects the upcoming 2015 countdown and attempts to find some order in the madness”.
Avenell’s predictions for this year’s top 10 Hottest 100 tracks (below) sees Lean On by Major Lazer & DJ Snake come in at number one, followed by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis’ Downtown and Chet Faker & Marcus Marr’s The Trouble With Us.
Avenell, who says he’s been listening to the Hottest 100 since 1993, has used a stack of data he’s collected into multiple spreadsheets, as well as some anecdotal data, to come up with a top 10.
Speaking with Music Feeds, Avenell says, “I’m very confident that those 10 songs will be there or thereabouts. If Australia Day comes around and my posted songs are the top 10 with a lot of them in order, I won’t be overly surprised.
“For someone to write 3000 words about it is pretty atypical… It’s unusual for someone to do this. I’m proud of it.”
Avenell says his Hottest 100 data shows Courtney Barnett, Tame Impala, The Wombats and Florence + The Machine have the best chance of landing multiple entries in this year’s list, with Florence potentially having enough power to break Wolfmother’s record of the most entries in a single Hottest 100, which was set by six of their songs back in 2005.
According to Avenell, artists with multiple songs in a single Hottest 100 often do the best. He calls it “the swarm effect”.
“Much like a cycling team in a long road race, songs tend to do much better as the best of a bunch of entrants from the same team, rather than as lone torchbearers,” he says.
Bookies started taking bets on this year’s Hottest 100 as early as July, with Sportsbet still showing Lean On as the favourite at the time of writing.
Catch Avenell’s predicted top 10 below, and read his scholarly Hottest 100 blog post right here. Feel free to share your own predictions for this year’s countdown as well — both us and Avenell are keen to hear them.
Chet Faker claimed top spot on last year’s Hottest 100, followed by tracks from Peking Duk and Hilltop Hoods.
UPDATE 24/01/16: Here are the latest front-runners for triple j’s Hottest 100 of 2015, including artists from Patrick Avenell’s predictions.
Watch: Major Lazer & DJ Snake – Lean On (feat. MØ)
2015 Hottest 100 Top 10 Predictions From “Hottest 100 Enthusiast” Patrick Avenell
1. ‘Lean On’ — Major Lazer, DJ Snake & MØ
2. ‘Downtown’ — Macklemore & Ryan Lewis et al
3. ‘The Trouble With Us’ — Marcus Marr & Chet Faker
4. ‘Do You Remember’ — Jarryd James
5. ‘Hoops’ — The Rubens
6. ‘Let It Happen’ — Tame Impala
7. ‘Can’t Feel My Face’ — The Weeknd
8. ‘Say My Name’ — Peking Duk & Benjamin Joseph
9. ‘Hotline Bling’ — Drake
10. ‘King Kunta’ — Kendrick Lamar
Gallery: 12 Things We Learned From Triple J’s Hottest 100 Of 2014
This "Hottest 100 Enthusiast" Reckons He's Predicted This Year's Top 10 - Music Feeds