Brisbane-based online marketer Nick Drewe made quite an upset last year when he announced to the country that he had predicted triple j’s Hottest 100 days before the station’s Australia Day reveal. Today, the cage-rattler is at it again, and spoiler alert, the Warmest 100 is predicting another upset win.
The Vine reports, Drewe had abandoned the idea of repeating the statistic feat this year when, in an attempt to quash spoilers, triple j this year removed the the social voting features Drewe used to collate data for his calculations.
“I thought, ‘Cool, we had fun last year. No need to go again this year,’” Drewe told The Vine. But Chicago-based economist David Quach managed to change the online marketer’s mind, contacting Drewe via email and convincing him they could find other ways to collate data this year.
If you’re not trying to avoid spoilers, we’ve published the Warmest 100 Top Ten predictions below.
Using screenshots people had taken of their votes and uploaded to Twitter and Instagram, Drewe, Quach and their team managed to collect roughly 17, 800 votes from 1779 entries. While that sample only represents 1.3% of the expected vote (smaller than last year’s sample), the team say they are confident in their predictions.
The 2012 Warmest 100 correctly predicted 92 of the top 100 songs, managing to accurately pick the placing of four in a row, with Flume, Calvin Harris, The Rubens and Tame Impala all scoring equally on both lists.
Many of Drewe’s predictions landed within a 10 to 15 spot range of where he had placed them, but some predictions were way off target. Japandroids’ The House That Heaven Built and Frank Ocean‘s Pyramids for example, were warmly predicted to place at 56 and 83 respectively, but never made it on the official list.
University of Queensland Senior Lecturer in Mathematics Dr Michael Bulmer told The Vine, there should still be a reasonably high degree of accuracy in The Warmest 100 results saying the poll might accurately predict at least 70 or 80 songs out of the 100.
Warmest 100 Predictions – Top 10
10. London Grammar – Strong
9. Rufus – Take Me
8. Lorde – Royals
7. James Blake – Retrograde
6. The Preatures – Is This How You Feel?
5. Violent Soho – Covered In Chrome
4. Arctic Monkeys – Why’d You Only Call Me When I’m High
3. Flume & Chet Faker – Drop The Game
2. Arctic Monkeys – Do I Want To Kno
1. Vance Joy – Riptide