Triple j’s Hottest 100 for 2012 will be revealed this Saturday, January 26, but the results may have already been published thanks to Brisbane-based online marketer Nick Drewe and his list The Warmest 100.
As reported by The Vine, Drewe has collected data from Facebook, Twitter and other social media sites and compiled that information into a statistical prediction of the triple j Hottest 100. As Drewe explained, he noticed a pattern in URL structure that enabled him to tally votes.
“I was on Facebook on Sunday night two weeks ago,” Drewe informed The Vine. “A few of my friends had posted their votes on the Hottest 100. I was just browsing through, having a look at them, and I noticed the URL structure of each of those pages had the same pattern.”
“From there, it’s a pretty simple process to calculate a prediction or estimate of what the Hottest 100 is going to be,” Drewe revealed.
Drewe located over 20,000 submissions which, based on the 1.3 million votes tallied in last year’s Hottest 100, means The Warmest 100 represents a 2% sample size. According to University of Queensland Chair of Applied Statistics, Professor You-Gan Wang, that sample size could accurately predict approximately 90% of the final results.
“Assuming everything’s independent of each other,” Professor Wang explained to The Vine, “and if the 26,000 is a random sample among the total potential of 1.3 million … I think with the top 100, you might get 90 right. You might get 92 or you might get 95. It’s unlikely you’ll get all 100 correct.”
As for potentially ruining triple j’s Hottest 100, Drewe is quick to remind that The Warmest 100 is only a prediction and his list comes with plenty of safeguards and spoiler alerts.
“The site is carefully laid out with a number of safeguards protecting those who might be curious about the team’s methods, but want to remain in the dark about the final countdown,” assures Drewe.
“If they choose to they can scroll down and start seeing the list from 100. They can listen to a few songs if they want and keep scrolling down towards number one. And as they keep getting to the top of the list we’ll continue with the warnings that they might ruin their Australia Day.”
You’ve been warned, now if you wish check out The Warmest 100